Democracy, Demography & Destiny : Part 6

This series aims to give readers a basic understanding of the perplexing puzzles that the strange arithmetic of population poses to democratic systems today! In this sixth installment, we’ll explore India’s birth rate dynamics, state-wise variations, interstate migration, urban migration waves, and the resulting challenges...

Part 6: The Arithmetic of Mumbai’s Crowded Locals

So far in this series, we’ve examined birth rate trends through examples from various global regions. Before diving into India’s birth rate math, let’s recap the concept briefly: the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) indicates, on average, how many children women in a reproductive age group give birth to in a region. If a population’s TFR is around 2.1, it can sustain itself without external migration. This is called the replacement-level TFR. Above 2.1, the population grows; below it, the population shrinks.

India’s TFR, according to the fifth National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) from 2019-20, was recorded at 2.0. Back when the first NFHS was conducted in 1992-93, it was 3.4. Since then, the TFR has steadily declined. By the fourth survey (2015-16), it had dropped to 2.2, and in the next five years, it slid further to 2.0. So, while India holds the record as the world’s most populous country, our average TFR has now dipped below the replacement level!

NHFS-4 : trends in fertility

Looking at the median age at first and last birth sharpens this trend. The average age of Indian women at their first childbirth was 19.4 during the first NFHS in 1992-93. By 2019-20, it had risen to 21.2. Increased women’s education and access to job opportunities have played a big role here. Meanwhile, the average age at which women have their last child dropped from 32.8 to 27.6 in the same period! This means not only is the birth rate falling, but India’s fertility window is also shrinking.

Source: NFHS rounds 1-5, International Institute for Population Sciences

However, this is just the national average! When we look at state-wise data, it’s clear that more developed states have seen significant TFR declines. According to NFHS-5 (2019-20), Maharashtra’s TFR is 1.7, Gujarat’s 1.9, Karnataka’s 1.7, Goa’s 1.3, and West Bengal’s 1.6. In contrast, less developed northern states show higher rates: Bihar at 3.0, Uttar Pradesh around 2.4, and Jharkhand at 2.3. This aligns with the global trend we’ve seen in this series—progress correlates with declining birth rates, and India’s state-wise data reflects the same pattern..

 NFHS-5: TFR across states

The disparity grows even starker when we compare urban and rural areas. For instance, Maharashtra’s urban TFR is around 1.4, while its rural TFR is 1.9. In Uttar Pradesh, rural areas clock in at 2.5, and in rural Bihar, it’s 3.2. So, the gap between urban areas in developed states and rural areas in less developed states is significantly wider than state-level averages suggest!

This data translates into real-world impacts we can see around us. The waves of migrants flocking to India’s major cities reveal the gravity of these numbers. With Mumbai’s TFR less than half of rural Bihar’s, thousands of workers migrate to Mumbai daily for jobs—a pattern we’ve seen for years. Mumbai’s current birth rate can’t meet its labor demands. Meanwhile, rural Bihar’s surplus workforce struggles to find local jobs due to underdevelopment. Just as water flows from high to low ground, these migrant waves from rural Bihar flow steadily to Mumbai!

Just as you can’t fake money, you can’t fake manpower. Regardless of anyone’s regional pride or sentiments, Mumbai or Bangalore’s urban economies will inevitably look to places like rural Bihar for the labor needed to fuel growth—it’s practically a law of nature! With Mumbai’s local birth rate plummeting and modern healthcare extending lifespans, the city faces a future with fewer young people and more elderly—a trend we’ve already seen in Japan and Korea in earlier parts of this series. Mumbai is on track to become India’s Tokyo. Thus, migration is as much a necessity for low-TFR cities like Mumbai (below 1.5) as it is for the migrant workers themselves!

Migration is often viewed through the lens of regional identity or nativism. Yet, the irony is that the same leaders who loudly demand “stop the migrant waves” to score political points often employ those very migrants in their construction businesses. While declining birth rate communities may resent high-birth-rate groups—a trend seen globally—economies in such places rely heavily on migrant labor to survive, both worldwide and in India.

Of course, this creates serious urban challenges: growing slums, urban decay, strain on infrastructure like Mumbai’s local trains, shifting demographics, and changes to city culture. Post-independence, India’s urban population was around 18%. Recent data shows it’s now 35%, and the 2023-24 Economic Survey projects it will exceed 40% by 2030. As cities’ low birth rates pull in more rural populations, this trend will only intensify.

Share of people living in urban and rural areas, India

Migration impacts rural areas too. The loss of skilled and unskilled labor leaves villages short-handed. Agriculture suffers the most, with farmers facing a critical shortage of workers and rising labor costs. Meanwhile, educated individuals increasingly settle in cities, causing a brain drain in rural areas. This creates a vicious cycle: labor shortages harm agriculture, brain drain stalls development, slowing growth, and pushing even more people to migrate to cities.

In this part, we’ve unpacked India’s birth rate dynamics, diving into the data and trends. We’ve explored state-wise TFR variations, urban-rural divides, rising migration to cities, and the resulting urban and rural challenges. In the next part, we’ll continue this discussion, delving into the religious, regional, and linguistic identity conflicts tied to India’s birth rate trends. Until then, take care!

Original Marathi Blog Article: लोकशाही आणि लोकसंख्येचा यक्षप्रश्न - भाग ६ 

Democracy, Demography & Destiny : Part 5

This series aims to give readers a basic understanding of the perplexing puzzles that the strange arithmetic of population poses to democratic systems today! In this fifth installment, we’ll explore birth rates, the impact of women’s empowerment on birth rates, feminism, the stances of anti-feminist groups, and related topics...

Part 5: Women, Birth Rates & Social Shifts

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) indicates, on average, how many children women in a reproductive age group give birth to in a given region. In the first part of this series, we explored the issue of declining birth rates through the example of South Korea! To recap briefly: if a population’s TFR is around 2.1, it can sustain itself without importing people from outside. This is called the replacement-level TFR. If the TFR is above 2.1, the population grows; if it falls below, the population starts shrinking.

Let’s dive deeper into the biological and social math behind this number. The growth of a mammalian population largely depends on its female population. Imagine two separate lion prides that don’t intermix. One has 10 males and 90 females; the other has the reverse ratio. The first pride can grow much faster than the second ever could! Why? Because females are the “bottleneck unit” for birth rates in mammals. That’s why TFR is calculated based on the number of children per woman in a reproductive age group, not per couple or family.

This biological math heavily influences the laws and norms of evolved human societies. Why are men typically sent to fight wars? Why is polygyny (one man with multiple wives) more common than polyandry (one woman with multiple husbands)? Why are most religions and cultures patriarchal? The roots of these social questions trace back to the biology of birth rates! Thus, religious, political, and social restrictions on women, disparities in rights between men and women, women’s empowerment, feminism, and anti-feminist movements are all closely tied to the issue of birth rates.

The Industrial Revolution, world wars, and similar major shifts created opportunities for women’s empowerment in recent centuries, with Western countries leading the charge. Increased participation of women in the economy, advanced contraception technologies, and women’s education movements gave rise to “feminist” political currents worldwide. These led to significant democratic reforms like women’s suffrage—the right to vote on par with men! For example, the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, granting women voting rights, took effect in 1920. Suddenly, political parties that once relied solely on male votes had to start wooing their dear sisters too!!

As women’s voting rights, property ownership, and workforce participation became more entrenched, feminist movements grew more prominent. Their demands for equal rights and treatment became increasingly assertive. Radical feminism, in particular, went beyond moderate calls for equality, taking on the form of identity politics. This naturally led to clashes with religious establishments! The abortion rights debate in the U.S. is a prime example. The feminist “pro-choice” stance clashes with the “pro-life” position of conservative Christian groups, a conflict that remains unresolved. Its ripples have shaped American politics, judiciary (e.g., Roe v. Wade), and lifestyles for decades.

A striking example of radical feminism is South Korea’s 4B movement! As a rebellion against the country’s patriarchal society, militant feminist groups there adopted a four-pronged strategy in the latter half of the last decade:

• Bisekseu: No sex with men

• Bichulsan: No giving birth

• Biyeonae: No dating men

• Bihon: No marriage with men

In short, it’s like Gandhi’s non-cooperation movement, but a radical feminist version! While all four tenets have serious societal impacts, the second—bichulsan (no giving birth)—is particularly critical for South Korea’s already perilously low birth rate. Though the 4B movement’s confrontational stance is considered extreme, it reveals the broader direction of 21st-century feminist thought.

Thus, assertive feminist movements, advanced contraception, laws affirming abortion rights, educated women prioritizing careers, and the rising age of motherhood directly contribute to the declining birth rate trend seen in nearly every advanced democratic country.

Women's educational attainment vs. fertility rate, 2020

The mean age at childbearing further clarifies this shifting social reality. The higher this age, the lower the birth rate, as human technology hasn’t fully overcome the biological “expiry date” on women’s fertility. According to 2021 data, the average age of motherhood in South Korea is 32.5, Singapore 31.9, Japan 31.4, Germany 31.1, and England 30.6—clearly, in advanced democracies, this age has crossed into the thirties.

Average age of mothers at childbirth, 2023

This rising age of motherhood and the resulting drop in birth rates have become a thorny issue for advanced democracies! Once women’s lifestyles shift—as discussed above—and birth rates start declining, the effect becomes more pronounced each year. This “snowball effect” is increasingly difficult for policymakers to curb.

These challenges, especially the necessity of migration to sustain populations, have sparked new opposition to feminist movements and women’s modern lifestyles. This manifests as pushback against women-friendly laws, rhetoric challenging women’s political rights, and online hate targeting women with modern lifestyles. A prominent example is Andrew Tate, the global poster boy for such views, who gained fame online with provocative claims like women should stick to “hearth and home,” are men’s property, and aren’t fit to drive cars. Online meme terms like “alpha male” and “sigma male” also stem from this anti-feminist current.

This growing hostility toward women’s modern lifestyles is evident in politics too. For instance, Trump’s current Vice President, J.D. Vance, fueled the 2024 campaign by calling Kamala Harris a “puppet” of the “childless cat lady” crowd—women who, instead of fulfilling their “God-given duty” to bear children, prioritize careers and pet cats. Mocking such women as “childless cat ladies” has become a favorite pastime of recent anti-feminist rhetoric!

Successful female celebrities like Taylor Swift are frequently targeted in this narrative, leading to ongoing online and offline battles between feminists and these new misogynistic groups. These conflicts echo in parliaments, courts, and offices. In 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision, dealing a blow to pro-choice feminists, sparking widespread protests. In the Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump contest, feminist groups backed Harris, while anti-feminist factions supported Trump, escalating the feud further.

So, in this part, we’ve traced the impact of women’s empowerment on birth rates, the rising age of motherhood, feminist movements, and related social conflicts. In the next part, we’ll explore population changes and the complex math of birth rates in the Indian context, delving into North-South disputes, interstate migration, regional identities, and linguistic conflicts. Until then, 안녕히 계세요 (stay well)!

Original Marathi Blog Article: लोकशाही आणि लोकसंख्येचा यक्षप्रश्न - भाग ५

Democracy, Demography & Destiny : Part 4

This series aims to give readers a basic understanding of the perplexing puzzles that the strange arithmetic of population poses to democratic systems today! In this fourth installment, we’ll explore migration-related issues, focusing on the conflict between locals and outsiders in the Western world, the rise of ethno-nationalism, Western cultural nationalism, and related topics...

Part 4: The Rise of Ethnic & Cultural Nationalisms in the West

In the previous part, we discussed in detail the neoliberal policies that bolstered Western economies, the welcoming political climate for migration, and the cultural blending that followed. The data we reviewed made it clear that the wave of migration to Western countries over recent decades has benefited both their economies and the migrants themselves. But, as nature’s rule goes, where there’s honey, there are stinging flies—and this case is no exception!

Take a moment from Donald Trump’s recent re-election campaign against Kamala Harris. Trump stirred up quite a storm by spinning tales about immigrants from Haiti, claiming they’d “devour your cats and dogs raw” to scare voters. He argued that Kamala and Biden were bringing in masses of illegal immigrants to destroy American culture, a stance that gave him a strong lead in the campaign. 

Most Americans approve of increasing deportations, sending more U.S. troops to the Mexican border

This issue was so potent that post-election analyses showed illegal immigration was one of the top concerns for voters. Even after Trump began deporting unauthorized immigrants, surveys reflected the same trend. For example, according to February 2025 data from the Pew Research Center:  

• 59% of U.S. adults say they approve of Trump increasing efforts to deport people who are living in the U.S. illegally, including 35% who strongly approve.
• 74% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the Trump administration is doing the right amount to deport immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally. Another 12% say it’s doing too little and 13% say it’s doing too much.
• Roughly nine-in-ten White Republicans approve of increasing federal deportation efforts (91%) and increasing the military presence on the border (92%).
• Among Hispanic Republicans, approval falls to 69% for increasing deportations and 75% for sending additional troops to the border.

This clearly shows that immigration is a deeply personal issue for Trump’s voter base. Riding this support, Trump’s administration has been aggressively deporting undocumented immigrants, sending back people from South America, Africa, India, and elsewhere. Hundreds of Indians were flown back—some with handkerchiefs tied to their wrists—and the political uproar it sparked here doesn’t need much explaining...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvLWAvP2G1o

Now, among Trump’s supporters, there’s some internal disagreement. One group, including folks like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, argues that migration is fine but should be legal and controlled. They say America should decide who, how many, and what kind of people to admit, ensuring they’re loyal to “American values”—the cultural principles deemed important. This approach could be called cultural nationalism or conservative nationalism. Essentially, it says that regardless of someone’s ancestral homeland, if they see America as their sacred land, come legally, and contribute to its prosperity, they should be allowed in.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/vivek-ramaswamy-says-legal-immigration-system-is-broke-in-us-6990029

If you’ve read Musk’s tweets or listened to Ramaswamy’s speeches, this perspective becomes quite clear. Then there’s another group—the ethno-nationalists. Some liberal left-leaning folks might label them as racists or worse, but for our discussion, understanding the issue matters more than pinning villains, so let’s stick with calling them ethno-nationalists for now and move forward!

Their argument is that people of European descent (fair skin, light hair, blue eyes, etc.) are already a shrinking minority globally. They claim educated Western women, swayed by liberal ideas, prioritize careers and pets over having children, causing birth rates to plummet and putting their demographic at risk. This fear led to a campaign where pop star Taylor Swift was mocked as a “childless cat lady” for supposedly embodying this trend!

U.S. Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) | Taylor Swift's Instagram post endorsing US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. (Photo illustration by Salon/Getty Images)

That campaign gained so much traction that Trump’s current Vice President, J.D. Vance, spiced up the election trail by calling Kamala Harris a “puppet” of this “childless cat lady” brigade. In response, Taylor Swift wrote an open letter urging her fans to vote for Harris, posting it on Instagram with a photo of her beloved cat and signing off as “Taylor Swift, Childless Cat Lady.”

https://www.instagram.com/p/C_wtAOKOW1z/

So, gripped by fears that this “educated women turning into childless cat ladies” trend will further shrink their population, these ethno-nationalists take a hard stance against migration—saying not just “no to illegal migration,” but also “keep legal migration minimal!” While Trump himself might not fully align with this view, a significant chunk of his supporters do, making it politically crucial...

This issue isn’t limited to America, of course. The U.S., especially under Trump, may be ahead of the curve, but echoes of this debate are heard in Canada and Europe too. Remember Brexit—the UK’s break from the European Union last decade? One of the key reasons behind it was unrestricted migration enabled by the EU. Similarly, Italy’s current Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, rose to power partly by taking a tough stance on immigration.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/16/nigel-farage-defends-ukip-breaking-point-poster-queue-of-migrants

This shows just how tricky migration—a seemingly simple fix for declining birth rates—can be in practice! The Western neoliberal policies that used migration as a tool for economic prosperity have faced a direct challenge from this new nationalistic uproar over the past decade. It’s given rise to stricter visa rules, tariffs, and isolationist economic policies. Trump’s legal push against corporate Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies is one such ripple. Culturally, it’s led to boycotts of Hollywood films showcasing racial diversity and a growing unease toward the art, music, cuisines, festivals, and traditions of minority or migrant communities.

In this series so far, we’ve studied birth rate math in Korea, explored the citizen-resident divide in the Gulf, and examined the Western neoliberal system that used migration to counter population challenges. Today, we’ve tackled the western nationalism debate. Before diving into India and Maharashtra-specific issues, we’ll take a closer look at women’s issues and feminism in the next part to better understand the complexities of the “childless cat lady” narrative. So, let’s meet again in the next installment—until then, take care!

Re: Kunal Kamra vs Eknath Shinde

1. Watching Kunal Kamra’s uploaded video and then seeing Shinde’s soldiers show up to trash Habitat Studio, only to end up scratching their heads like, “Wait, where’d this guy disappear to in an hour?”—honestly, I felt bad for them. Their confusion was almost pitiable.

2. Uploading a stand-up comedy set on YouTube involves a ton of editing and takes time—Kamra wasn’t going to just sit there waiting for them. This basic fact seems to have flown over the poor guys’ heads. Eknathrao should shell out a bit and treat these workers to a couple of comedy shows so they get how it works!

3. Given how Kunal Kamra’s comedy quality is sliding downhill, he might soon end up as a spokesperson for the Shiv Sena (UBT) crew in a matter of days!

4. If that happens, Kunal Kamra could rank third or fourth on the list of laughable content creators in the UBT camp! The “Clerk-in-Chief” would, of course, hold the top spot unchallenged!!

5. In that skit, Kamra actually took more jabs at our revered Modi ji and Amit Shah. Yet, oddly enough, Modi’s devotees didn’t seem to top the list of the offended! Are Modi fans turning tolerant, or have they just given up on caring about Kamra?

6. On this occasion, at least, it’s a silver lining that those in Maharashtra—whose regime once threw people in jail for a month over sharing poetry and specialized in “hospitality” that left welts on backs—suddenly discovered their love for free speech. Quite the fortunate twist!!

7. The funniest part of this whole mess? UBT MP Priyanka Chaturvedi’s gem of a reaction on a TV channel. When you send someone to the Rajya Sabha who doesn’t even know their own party’s history, you get these divine moments of absurdity!

8. Chaturvedi madam boldly declared, “Show me one instance where our party has trashed a studio or something—we don’t do that at all!” Hearing that, the first person who popped into my mind was our very own Nikhil Wagle!!

9. They say Kamra pulled off this stunt and then safely hightailed it to Tamil Nadu. Given that the ruling party there recently trashed YouTuber Savukku Shankar’s house, the irony of this escapade just hits different...

10. Kamra posed with his beloved pocket Constitution for a selfie—seems like it’s the latest trend! It’s like those Instagram hipsters posting “aesthetic” pics with Murakami, Harari, or coffee-table books, just taken to the next level!

11. The quirky thing about this Constitution-lover gang? They’re so attached to that little booklet but probably never bother opening it! They don’t even have the basic curiosity to ask what the First Amendment was, who made it, why, or how...

12. Who exactly put curbs on free speech under Article 19 by amending the Constitution, and what impact did it have on our laws and justice system? Kamra and his “Prince Pappu” might not care, but we should—so if you’re curious, a quick Google won’t hurt!

13. Speaking of the law—our Maharashtra CM issued a threat/warning to Kamra right from the assembly floor. As a Marathi citizen, I humbly request he follows through. He’s law-educated, so he should tell Maharashtra what Kamra’s exact crime is, under which section, and what “action” means...

14. If he doesn’t, and Kamra outsmarts the government’s lawyers in court, imagine this: a CM announces action against a stand-up comic from the assembly, only for the guy to keep clowning around freely. As a Marathi, I dread the embarrassment of our CM looking like an "all bark - no bite" character nationwide...

15. Kunal Kamra’s starting to look a bit like Amitbhai Shah these days. Is there some Freud or Jung theory that says if you hate someone too much, you start resembling them? If anyone knows, drop it in the comments!

16. In that video, Kamra threw some pretty low-grade jokes at Ambani Senior and Junior. As beneficiaries of the “Mukeshbhai Jio Scheme,” we’ve got to register our protest here!\

17. Kamra’s stand-up also dehumanized the elderly, fat-shamed folks, and mocked people rising from poverty—yet somehow, no one seemed too bothered by that...

18. Just like our German Shepherd Dhruv Rathee, Kamra’s got fans abroad too—you can tell from the dollars and euros rolling in via YouTube Super Chats! YouTube takes 30%, Kamra keeps the rest, and then our Nirmala aunty swoops in for her 30%—boosting the GDP!!

19. Back to the action—Shinde’s Thane workers smashed Habitat because Kamra performed there. In Solapur, Shinde’s guys caught comedian Pranit More mid-set, broke his hand in front of the audience! Now you decide which Shinde’s crew takes the cake!!

Democracy, Demography & Destiny : Part 3

This series is designed to give readers a basic grasp of the confounding puzzles that the strange arithmetic of population poses to democratic systems today! In this third installment, we’ll wander into the world of the fair-skinned—the West—to discuss population and democracy issues tied to migration...

Part 3: The West’s Invitation!

Migration to the West isn’t exactly a new phenomenon for India. Every year, thousands of Indians become non-residents for reasons like education, jobs, or personal growth! Lately, as communication and transport have become easier, more accessible, and cheaper, this trend has only grown year after year...

Now, here’s a key point: for decades, Western countries have consistently pursued migration-friendly policies! In the last part, we saw how the UAE puts tight restrictions on granting citizenship to migrants. Western nations, on the other hand, adopted liberal policies, and as a result, talent from across the globe started pooling in the West. Take America, for instance—the “American Dream” and its liberal migration policies gifted the US tech titans like Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella, and Elon Musk! Google, Microsoft, and Tesla—mega-powerful American companies—are led by migrants. 

These are the flashy examples—now let’s look at the data! Of all the US companies valued at a billion dollars or more, over half (55%) were founded by people who came from outside! Forbes, a big name in the business world, summarized a research report from the National Foundation of American Policy in 2022. Here’s a juicy bit worth noting:

“Immigrants have started more than half (319 of 582, or 55%) of America’s startup companies valued at $1 billion or more,” the analysis. “Moreover, nearly two-thirds (64%) of U.S. billion-dollar companies (unicorns) were founded or cofounded by immigrants or the children of immigrants. Almost 80% of America’s unicorn companies (privately-held, billion-dollar companies) have an immigrant founder or an immigrant in a key leadership role, such as CEO or vice president of engineering.”

You’ll see a similar picture, more or less, in Canada and Europe too! The Brits even went as far as making the son-in-law of Infosys’s famously “simple and pure” Sudhabai Murthy—yes, Rishi Sunak—their Prime Minister! Sunak’s parents, of Indian descent, migrated to Britain from Africa. Meanwhile, London’s mayor for the past nine years, Sadiq Khan, has grandparents who moved there from Pakistan. You’ll find such examples across nearly every major field in the Western world.

Rishi Sunak and Akshata Murthy with their pet dog Nova in No 10

.(Photo: Simon Walker/No 10 Downing Street)

For decades, skilled workers from around the globe have flowed westward, and it’s been a clear win-win for both the host countries and the migrants! These nations’ economies kept getting stronger, which made even more skilled folks eager to head there—a virtuous cycle of prosperity that spun for years... Check the HDI (Human Development Index) of these migrant-welcoming countries, and it gets even clearer. 

World map of countries and territories by HDI scores in increments of 0.050
(based on 2022 data, published in 2024) 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index#/media/File:HDI2022Incrimental.svg

Based on 2022 figures, the US clocks in at 0.927. Canada does even better at 0.935, while the UK—home to Sudhabai’s PM son-in-law—hits 0.940. For comparison, India’s HDI in the same year is just 0.644. Since this index measures prosperity, health, and education, it’s obvious that these Western nations, scoring above 0.900, are brimming with both wealth and well-being!

Now, as we saw in the Korean case earlier in this series, prosperity tends to tank birth rates (TFR)—and that trend holds true in the West too! Birth rates among Western citizens started dipping in the ’60s and ’70s. By 2000, they’d fallen below the replacement level of 2.1. Looking at this decade’s numbers, Europe’s TFR is 1.53, while North America’s is 1.8. It’s not as dire as Korea, but the decline has been steady and significant...

The total fertility rate in OECD countries, 2023
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#/media/File:Fertility_rate_in_OECD.svg

Yet, despite this drop in birth rates, Western countries kept progressing unabated because skilled workers kept pouring in from around the world. The success of this migration policy owes a lot to neoliberal ideology. Free trade, open borders allowing the free flow of labor, and a complementary culture of inclusivity and tolerance—these were the hallmarks of neoliberalism. There’s even a Reddit community of American neoliberals (r/neoliberal) with a slogan that sums it up: "Free trade, open borders; taco trucks on every corner"!

The benefits of this policy for Western economies are undeniable. But it’s not just that—it also gave rise to cosmopolitan cities. People from all over settled there, decking out these cities with their languages, arts, music, festivals, and cuisines! In metropolises like London, New York, and Toronto, you can find Marathi vada pav, Gujarati dhokla, Punjabi butter chicken, Bengali rasgulla, Udupi idli, Korean noodles, Chinese rice, Mexican tacos, and Italian pizza all in the same lane!!

Punjab restaurant, Neal Street, Covent Garden
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Punjab_restaurant,_Neal_Street,_Covent_Garden_01.jpg

So, by successfully rolling out immigration-friendly neoliberal policies, Western democracies kept their economic prosperity and cultural richness on an upward trajectory for decades. Migration fueled prosperity, and prosperity fueled more migration—this development cycle hummed along smoothly until about 2010-2015! Then, enter our beloved Trump Tata, storming the stage with a spicy twist that forced this Western neoliberal system to rethink all its equations!!

In this part, we’ve traced how the West’s migration-friendly policies turbocharged their prosperity and richness, and how they managed the population puzzle of declining birth rates over the past few decades. In the next part, we’ll gauge the direction of the Trump tornado, diving into the rising ethno-nationalism and cultural nationalism in the West, along with topics like the “holy land” and “fatherland” vibes! Until then, adiós...