CPEC & Indian Strategic Dilemma

CPEC is the term of the moment for Geo-Political topics ! CPEC is the famous abbreviation of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a grand project which has capabilities of changing the Asian Balance of Power... Actually, it seems a Bilateral Economic Transaction between the Dragon and Islamabad. But actually it has a hidden party ! The 'ghost party' having interest in CPEC is New Delhi... Actually, it is an open secret that Indian neighborhood is not 'goody goody' at all, especially when North-West frontiers of Indian Territory are concerned. So, CPEC is indeed a big issue as far as Indian Foreign Policy is concerned ! We will take a tour of the Geo-political Conditions and Possible Indian 'Course of Actions' related to CPEC in this article...

Let's have a brief introduction with the Idea and Reality of CPEC... Here are some points which will help you to get it clear -

• CPEC is a Bilateral Economic Agreement.
• Pakistan will get Investment, Energy Setups and Roads built. The investment, China is making in CPEC, amounts to around $46 Billion ! It means approx. 3 Lakh Crores of Indian Rupee. So, it is a huge investment and Pakistan is getting it without having to pay it back in Direct Monetary terms.
• China has some complex interests in CPEC. They are spending such a huge sum of money (not surely for any CHARITY !!) for developing Pakistan. In return, Beijing is eyeing on the Geo-Political 'Sweet Pastry' of Gwadar port ! It is important for China as the de-facto route of their foreign trade, i,e, South China-Pacific Region is facing some threats. The problems are caused by some historic conflict about the ownership of Islands in the South China Sea. To add to the headache of China, USA has tremendous influence over there, due their superior navy and geographical placement of the region. So, China is badly trying for 'An Alternate Trade Route' which will be safe and away from the direct influence of Uncle Sam ! So, CPEC is the answer to the Chinese problem of 'Safe Trade Route'... So, the excessive sums of money, China is spending on CPEC, will be totally justified, if China gets access to the Gwadar Port via Pakistan as per their planning...
• In addition, China will reduce the costs of Transportation significantly with a secure access to the Gwadar Port is achieved by them. In addition, China's strategic access to the narrow maritime region of that part, is equally significant for them.
  
• CPEC will have a tremendous impact on Baluchistan. Gwadar, itself, is located in Baluchistan. So, once China gets its 'Iron Grip' over the region, the Indian Ambitions of 'Free Baluchistan' will become 'Nearly Impossible'. Here is the map of CPEC for better understanding of its  possible geographical impact - 
  

So, now you have a clear idea about the Basic Concept of CPEC and its mutual benefits for China and Pakistan. Now let's move to its implications with regard to Indian interests. Here are the major effects or impacts on India due to CPEC -

1. Stronger Bonds between the Annoying Neighbors - This is the most 'easy-to-understand' points. Already, China and Pakistan are close to each others in order to counter Indian Interests in the region. Now, after CPEC this 'Affair' will convert to 'Marriage' actually !! So, if Indian Rivals are teaming up, India will be affected by that thing !
2. Feeling of Being Surrounded by Dragon - India is already fighting against the 'Ring of Pearls' strategy of China in the Indian Ocean. After CPEC, China will have a permanent presence in Pakistan, that too - officially ! In addition, China enters into the North Asian Sea after its access of Gwadar. So, India has a threat of being surrounded by the Dragon and CPEC adds to the headache of New Delhi !
3. Pakistan gets stronger - This actually doesn't need any explanation. The age-old rival of India becomes powerful if CPEC becomes functional. That too with Chinese aide ! So, CPEC will annoy India for sure.
4. Threat to the Indian Supplies of Oil - The distance between India's Chabahar Port in Iran and Gwadar Port is not more than 100 Kms ! This route is also important for existing Oil supplies of India. So, Chinese access of the 'Straits of Hormuz' will undoubtedly add to the complexities, for Indian side.
   

After knowing about the Strategic Implications of CPEC on India, we can now comfortably move towards the 'Dilemma' ! Actually, many Indian Analysts view CPEC as a Curse ! A majority of Indian thinkers want New Delhi to escalate 'some firework' over the region, in order to disrupt the CPEC Plan... Indian Government has not taken any official stance or has not published any comprehensive doctrine against CPEC. India is immediately concerned with the 'Via POK' status of CPEC ! Indian Prime Minister, Shri. Narendra Modi has officially raised concern about this thing. But as the POK is a historic and lengthy, pending dispute; China will not be bothered that much due to such objection from Indian side. Apart from this 'Via POK' thing, New Delhi hasn't any declared plan vis-a-vis the overall CPEC development.

So, the prevalent question is -  "How should India react to CPEC" ?

Positive or Negative are the alternatives. India will face it hard to 'Morally Justify' to put obstacles in CPEC. Because the POK issue is minor and China will not be bothered any more due to the 'PENDING' label of the age-old Kashmir problem. So, how India can morally oppose the CPEC in whole ? It seems difficult as India can't openly say that - "We don't want Pakistan to develop" !! So, if India decides to oppose it, it will be through Proxy War and secret tactics ! Baluchistan is 'the key' then... 

But what about India dealing positively or neutrally with the CPEC happening ? 

There is a possibility of Chinese Colonisation of Pakistan ! Even Pakistani Analysts predict this outcome. Pakistan is actually a fragile state. With no co-operation between the Civilian Executive and Military Warlords, Pakistan can be an easy 'Prey' for a 'Predator' like China in long term ! (Readers should take into account - what China did to Tibet too some extent, Nepal too !)  So, this will be 'Game Changer' for India too !! Because, it is reasonable to feel safer with China haveing grip over Pakistan rather than some irresponsible Jihadi cult having the access to nukes... China is a rival of India, but an economic partner too ! So, China will prefer ''Military Peace' to promote its aggression in the terms of Trade and Business. Actually, the threat from China to India is largely economic and hardly in terms of a Military Attack ! Because both of countries are the rising superpowers of world, they will hardly prefer any Military Confrontation on large scale. But present Pakistan is not like that ! India has a 'Real Permanent Threat' of Military Violence from irresponsible leadership Pakistan. So, CPEC and consequent Chinese domination of Pakistan can be viewed as a 'Positive Factor' for India from this 'Point of View' !!

But, India can't trust China ! 

At least, Indian History will not allow any Trust like that ! So, many analysts point out at the possibility of China intentionally escalating the problems in Kashimr, after its dominance in Pakistan. China can use Pakistan as buffer state too !! If China comes out with a setup of 'Puppet Govt in Pakistan' + 'Controlling Jihadis' + 'Using them against India'; this will be a serious trouble to Indian security interests ! So, the 'fear' is not actually baseless. It has historical background and Chinese Expansionism adds to the points !

So, this is the 'Dilemma' !!

A strategic Dilemma will be faced by New Delhi in near future ! The Indian Leadership has to solve it in order to come up with a Concrete Plan or Well-Thought Stance about CPEC. The stance taken by Indian Think-Tank will have a long lasting impact on the Balance of Power in Asia. CPEC is not bilateral ! It is more like a 'Geo-Political Love Triangle' !! So, New Delhi has to decide - whether to let Beijing marry to Islamabad officially via CPEC, or put some problems in this relationship to secure Indian Interests...

REFERENCES AND More About CPEC issue ->

1. A Youtube Video by Dr. Gaurav Garg about Indian Implications of CPEC -   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hd_z9kf8AeE&spfreload=10
2. Detailed Presentation on CPEC with Help of Interactive Story Map  https://www.thethirdpole.net/2016/06/10/story-map-china-pakistan-corridor-best-with/
3. Relationship between Gwadar and Chabahar - 'A Tale of Two Ports' -  http://worldnewsreport.in/a-tale-of-two-ports-gwadar-versus-chahbahar/
4. PM Modi's Concern over 'Via POK' route of CPEC -http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/prime-minister-narendra-modi-raises-indias-concern-over-cpec-which-runs-through-pok-3013260/
5. Quora Discussions about the Topic of China Pakistan Economic Corridor -  https://www.quora.com/topic/China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor
6.  A Documentary about CPEC and Gwadar by a Pakistani News Channel -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcorWyyz5_w
7. Aapas Ki Baat with Najam Sethi - His Analysis of CPEC issue -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4Ae9ppB-eg
8. All images and maps used for illustration in the article, are the intellectual property of their original creators and web sites. Courtesy - Google Images