Democracy, Demography & Destiny : Part 7

In the face of democratic systems today, the peculiar calculations of population have raised some complex questions, and this blog series has been planned with the intention of giving readers a general introduction to them! In this sixth part of the said blog series, we will consider issues such as the actual situation of Muslim birth rates in India, comparative statistics of Hindu-Muslim population, political-economic-social indicators related to the Muslim community, the pros and cons of vote banks, the participation of Indian Muslims in the mainstream, and so on...

Part 7: The Demographics of Indian Muslims

In the Indian context, the topic of birth rates is mostly discussed in relation to Hindu-Muslim numerical strength. In these discussions, statistics and facts are often sidelined, and alarmism like "they will soon become 51%, then see how your fate turns" takes the forefront. Since Hindutva politics or Indian politics in general has lately been driven by portraying a particular community as the villain, discussions/debates on population-birth rates tend to veer away from thought and towards venom. Therefore, in this part, we will discuss what the actual situation is in this regard, what the birth rate figures are, and what the realistic picture of the numerical strength of Indian Muslims is overall—a discussion that is often sidelined in our politics! The overall analysis in this article is not based on the scriptures of the Islamic religion, but rather, we are taking up this discussion in the light of political, economic, social, and cultural indicators related to the Muslim community, which is an integral part of India...

In 1951, when the first census of independent India was conducted, Hindus were approximately 84%, Muslims around 10%, and the remaining 6% were other religious/non-religious groups. In 1991, these proportions were recorded as 82% - 12% - 6%. In 2011, they changed to 80% - 14% - 6%. It should be noted here that during this observation period, India's population grew from 36 crore in 1951 to 85 crore in 1991 and 121 crore in 2011. Although the 2021 official census has not yet been conducted, according to estimates from renowned private organizations like the Pew Research Center, the religious population ratio during that time would be roughly 79% - 15% - 6%. This means that while India's population has been growing rapidly, there has been a noticeable change in the Hindu-Muslim ratio in India, and it has occurred in one direction—this is the reality.

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/09/21/religious-composition-of-india/

Now, how birth rates, i.e., Total Fertility Rate (TFR), contribute to changes in population and what its statistical criteria are, has already been written about in this blog series! Accordingly, birth rate figures here also prove useful in understanding changes in population. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data, in 1992-93, Hindu and Muslim birth rates were 3.3 and 4.4 respectively. That is, a significant difference of about 1.1 per woman in the reproductive age group was recorded between the birth rates of these two communities at that time. This notable disparity in birth rates helps explain the changes in Hindu-Muslim population after independence.

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/09/21/religious-composition-of-india/

After that, i.e., after the decade of rapid economic progress due to economic reforms in India, in 2005-06, the Hindu birth rate decreased to 2.6, while the Muslim birth rate was recorded at 3.4. That is, along with economic progress, the disparity in these birth rates reduced to an average of 0.8 per woman in the reproductive age group. Maintaining the same trend, in the fifth survey conducted by NFHS, Hindu birth rates were recorded at 1.94 and Muslim at 2.36 during 2019-21. This means that according to the currently available data, this disparity is 0.42. That is, the economic progress India made after 1991 affected Hindu birth rates as well as Muslim birth rates, and this gap has significantly reduced over the three decades after 1991. Here, the recorded and estimated population figures mentioned above confirm this, as you will notice.

https://healthnutritionindia.in/reports/documents/35/NFHS-5_INDIA_REPORT.pdf

Now, considering the economic situation, according to the information available in the fifth survey conducted by NFHS, Hindu and Muslim communities appear quite similar in terms of wealth distribution. The picture from the 2011 census data shows that the Muslim community is more concentrated in urban areas compared to Hindus. Therefore, the Hindu-Muslim numerical ratio is found to be higher in urban areas than in rural areas. However, in terms of education, the figures for the Muslim community are noticeably worse than those for the Hindu community and the national average. According to the 2011 census, the Muslim literacy rate was recorded at 68.54%. At that time, the national average was 72.98%. It is worth noting here that in the same census, the literacy rates of Christian, Jain, Parsi, and Sikh religious minority communities were recorded higher than the national average.

https://healthnutritionindia.in/reports/documents/35/NFHS-5_INDIA_REPORT.pdf

According to the information available in the fifth survey conducted by NFHS, the literacy situation regarding Muslim women can be observed as concerning compared to other religious communities. In 2019-21, the proportion of completing school education (at least up to ninth grade) was 50.6% for Hindu women and 41.6% for Muslim women. During the same period, this proportion was 62.1% among Christian women and a whopping 89.5% among Jain women—this fact helps in properly understanding the educational situation of Muslim women. It should be noted here that this data has a close relationship with the topic of birth rates!

In terms of the proportion of underage motherhood, i.e., Teenage Pregnancy & Motherhood, in the fifth survey conducted by NFHS, the highest rate of 8.4% was recorded in the Muslim community in the 15 to 19 age group, while for Hindus, this rate was recorded at 6.5%. Looking at minority communities with lower rates, the figures are Sikh 2.8%, Buddhist 3.7%, and Jain 1.1%. This means that when compared to the national average, Hindu figures, and the progress of other minority communities, the situation of Muslim women appears concerning from this fifth health survey.

https://healthnutritionindia.in/reports/documents/35/NFHS-5_INDIA_REPORT.pdf

Improving the literacy, health, freedom, and overall standard of living of women in a community is a proven way worldwide to reduce birth rates, as we have understood in previous parts of this blog series by taking examples from South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, and Western countries. Therefore, there is no surprise in seeing a clear correlation between the comparatively higher birth rates among Indian Muslims and the concerning situation recorded in terms of literacy-health-freedom of Indian Muslim women! Factors such as the relatively stronger hold of religious orthodoxy on Muslims, the dominance of regressive ideas, and the Indian politics that nurtures this are responsible for it.

It needs no separate proof that the Savarkarite Hindutva side in Indian politics operates by directing its overall ideology and ire towards Muslims. Savarkar himself or all subsequent Hindutva leaders have presented this in increasing order. Whether it's BJP, Shiv Sena, or MNS, the policy of targeting Muslims to seek Hindu votes adopted by their leaders from time to time is not hidden from us. Therefore, when such Hindutva parties are in power or dominant at the local level, instances of treating Muslims with stepmotherly attitude naturally occur around us.

A fitting example of how new issues are raised every time just to portray the Muslim community as the villain is the recent controversy over mosque loudspeakers in Maharashtra... Reducing noise pollution is indeed a good initiative. However, on one hand, keeping their own Hindutva drums, Dolby DJs, and firecrackers ongoing, and on the other hand, organizing agitations to remove loudspeakers and creating chaos—this kind of openly double-standard policy was being implemented by Hindutva party leaders in this matter. These leaders tolerate their own meeting horns, enjoy the Dolby DJs run by their pet goons alias workers, find the garlands of firecrackers lit for their welcome sweet, but when it comes to mosque loudspeakers, their eardrums become delicate! Then, deliberately organizing marches in front of mosques before elections and bringing their own loudspeakers to play Hanuman Chalisa to show how they subdue Muslims—all this has become a habit for these cunning leaders nowadays!!

On the other hand, the reality is that the Congress or Socialist politics, which claimed to be the advocates of Muslims, showed very little interest in truly safeguarding the interests of Muslims as a social group. Suppose your friend is going overboard with alcohol and getting addicted, would you go and offer him more free alcohol? Doing so would keep your friend pleased with you, but as a friend, you would prove unworthy in caring for his well-being—this is clear! These Congress or Socialist politicians, who are beneficiaries of the Muslim vote bank, have always been eager to push the Muslim community towards religious, regressive, and fundamentalist mentality from time to time. Whether it's the burqa, triple talaq, or the issue of marriage age limit, in these matters, Congress/Socialist leaders have not shown much willingness to reform the Muslim community.

On one hand, they take credit for bringing the Hindu Code Bill, and on the other hand, they cunningly support keeping Muslim women under the yoke of religion by saying "they have freedom!" These people have shown such deceit from time to time. Acting as if the Muslim vote bank is their ancestral fiefdom, these Congress/Socialist party leaders ridicule smaller parties like MIM, which try to represent Muslims, by calling them BJP's B-team! These parties and leaders are not well-wishers of the Muslim community, not friends at all; they are just beneficiaries of today's 15% Muslim vote bank...

The situation of political representation of the Muslim community, trapped in such a double bind, is becoming increasingly dire day by day. In the Lok Sabha elected in 2024, Muslim MPs from the community are less than 4.5%. In 1999, this figure was close to 6%, and in 2004, it was around 6.5%. Today, the ruling BJP did not feel the need to elect even one person as an MP from the nearly 22 crore population that constitutes 15% of the entire country! Earlier, BJP used to keep people like Shahnawaz Hussain or Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi at least for show. Now, they don't even feel the need for that! Today, there is not a single Muslim MP in the ruling alliance. There is not a single Muslim minister in the current central cabinet! This is the first time in the history of independent India that not a single Muslim person has taken oath in India's central cabinet!!

https://www.thehindu.com/data/data-eighteenth-lok-sabha-has-lowest-share-of-muslim-mps-in-six-decades/article68285104.ece

India has a representative democracy. Yet, the ruling group no longer seems willing to give at least one representative to the 22 crore population in this country! The situation is the same in Maharashtra, which boasts of progressiveness. In our current Vidhan Sabha, Muslim representatives are barely 3.5%. Here too, the ruling BJP, the largest party, does not have a single Muslim MLA. That means they don't even feel the need to bring at least one for exception or for show! Such a decline in representation for a social group is an extremely serious problem for the democratic system.

At one time in Maharashtra, Barrister Abdul Rahman Antule could become the Chief Minister. At one time, Abdul Kalam could become India's President from BJP/NDA without his Muslim name being an obstacle. Today, considering advanced countries, in America, Zohran Mamdani becomes the mayor of New York. Over there in Europe, Sadiq Khan has been handling that responsibility in a city like London for a whole decade. It is highlighted from this that no criterion of not having a Muslim or minority name is set for the mayor position in both these cities. At the same time, in India, the ruling party is not willing to give even one MP from the 22 crore Muslim community! The current ruling alliance is not even prepared to give at least one minister to the social group that constitutes 15% of today's India...

The Indian Muslim community today, enduring the increasingly aggressive tone of Hindutva, needs to seriously consider why it does not have modern-thinking leadership at the national level to lead it on the path of progress. The price of tolerating mullahs and maulvis—who try to ruin the young generation of their community by feeding them the opium of religious scriptures—as their ideological leaders is what this community is paying today. Without creating its own modern-thinking leadership, becoming politically helpless and nurturing cunning leaders who are beneficiaries of their numerical strength has become a major problem for this community! Indian Muslims have made the grave mistake of considering their flatterers as their friends.

The 'Idea of India' of independent India is an important chain that keeps this vast country united and cohesive. The Idea of India articulated by Gandhi-Nehru-Patel is the important difference between India and Pakistan. The tolerant modern values reflected in our Constitution are the key reason why our identity as the world's largest democracy—despite immense diversity—has survived until now. In such a time, bringing the Muslim community, which is an integral part of our country, into the mainstream is in the interest of that community as well as all of us. There is a greater risk that social groups pushed away from the mainstream will fall prey to religious extremism and separatism—this is something the country needs to recognize in time.

The Muslims around you in your village or city today are not Aurangzeb's army. The Muslims who are components of Indian democracy today are not some sultan's generals or emperor's heirs, but citizens of this country just like us—this simple realization is enough to puncture the balloon of hardcore Hindutva! Smearing the mud of exaggerated history to collectively villainize a social group in the present in our country is a foolish attitude that does not align at all with this country's Constitution and Idea of India—this is a responsibility we all have to assert emphatically! There is a need for educated and cultured Indian citizens to realize that leaving 15% of India's population under the yoke of regressive religious orthodoxy and without political representation is against the nation's interest.

I conclude this part of the blog series by expressing hope that an awareness of this reality about Indian Muslims and a sense of brotherhood towards them will once again grow anew among educated Indian citizens, and our Idea of India will not reject Muslims as outsiders! In the next part of this blog series, we will discuss Indian federalism and delimitation, until then, I take your leave...

Original Marathi Blog Article: लोकशाही आणि लोकसंख्येचा यक्षप्रश्न - भाग ७ 

References:

1. https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/09/21/religious-composition-of-india/

2. https://censusindia.gov.in/nada/index.php/catalog/32995/download/36813/48848_1991_REL.pdf

3. https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/09/21/population-growth-and-religious-composition/

4. https://www.nfhsiips.in/nfhsuser/publication.php

5. https://healthnutritionindia.in/reports/documents/35/NFHS-5_INDIA_REPORT.pdf

6. https://www.price360.in/uploads/blog-event/pdf/7_2_july%202024_the%20declining%20income%20gap%20between%20hindu%20and%20muslim%20families%20in%20india_63444.pdf

7. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1814470&reg=3&lang=2

8. https://www.thehindu.com/data/data-eighteenth-lok-sabha-has-lowest-share-of-muslim-mps-in-six-decades/article68285104.ece

9. https://www.freepressjournal.in/mumbai/maharashtra-assembly-sees-no-increase-in-muslim-representation-with-10-mlas-the-same-as-2019

10. https://www.theindiaforum.in/politics/decline-muslim-legislative-representation-and-its-consequences