Saturday 24 February 2018

Understanding the PNB Scam- Illustrative Network Map

The PNB Scam is the HOT topic of this month ! The news of the scam and subsequent events of Mr. Nirav Modi leaving India- have shown their devastating effects on Stock Market. PNB's Stock Price plummeted to Rs.113 from RS.161 in last two weeks ! The topic has started heated debates regarding Indian PSU Banks, their operations and over all regulatory framework. 

But the complexity of the events and connections, involved in this financial crime, is too overwhelming to conclude about it- on the basis of media debates. A bird's eye view revealing the over all scenario regarding this Scam requires reading diverse kind of information. After, reading around dozens of articles regarding the scam across the media outlets and portals. I have tried to summarise and illustrate the whole scenario for my readers. 

First of all we will discover brief gist of informative articles (with link to each of them) and factual sub-points regarding the broad main points related to the PNB Scam. Then we will have a look at a Network Map created by me, to facilitate better understanding of the complex set of happenings and relationships between various parties involved. So, here we go -

1. Who's Nirav Modi ?  

2. Who's Mehul Choksi ?
3. What exactly PNB advanced, in terms of credit, to Mr. Modi ?
  • It's an LoU- Letter of Undertaking -LoUs are used by a bank’s customer to avail short-term credit in a foreign country. These transactions are not retail in nature and are mostly used by businesses for import of goods. - The overseas bank lending to the borrower based on the LoU earns interest on the amount, the bank issuing the LoU gets a fee and the borrower gets a credit facility at a place where she may not have banking relationships. Moreover, interest rates in India are higher compared to international benchmark rates. So the effective outgo on interest for the borrower is also beneficial. If the collateral is in the form of a fixed deposit, there is further gain on the interest earned, while the bank also gets some funds to use.
  • It's communicated through SWIFT- SWIFT, short for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, and letters of undertaking are the two instruments allegedly manipulated by PNB employees to let diamond merchant Nirav Modi channel the money illegally. - https://scroll.in/article/869394/understanding-swift-the-messaging-system-at-the-heart-of-the-1-8-billion-pnb-fraud
  • It was allegedly Unauthorised - In PNB’s case, LoUs were issued via SWIFT in favour of Nirav Modi. An LoU is a bank guarantee from PNB (or any other bank) on the basis of which the overseas banks grant loans. The PNB employees reportedly shared the SWIFT password with Modi’s aide, allowing fraudulent authorisation of transactions. - https://qz.com/1210341/the-1-8-billion-punjab-national-bank-nirav-modi-scam-is-throwing-up-more-questions-than-answers/
4. How the Fraud developed over time ?
  • In 2011, ​i​t began with a a much smaller amount with a single letter of undertaking (LoU)​ worth around Rs800 crore.- When the borrower did not repay the first Rs800 crore, the bank ought to have stepped in and booked a default by the group company. Instead, the two PNB employees, who were allegedly party to the fraud, issued more LoUs on behalf of PNB, asking other banks to give out fresh loans to the firms. This continued until two weeks before the whole operation came to light after some of Modi’s employees visited the bank on Jan. 05. The management was caught napping and the overdue loans exceeded Rs11,000 crore.When the credit due was not paid in time, more LoUs were issued on behalf of PNB to offset the payment​. - https://qz.com/1208266/the-1-8-billion-punjab-national-bank-nirav-modi-fraud-explained/
5. What are the Actions taken by Modi Govt ?
6. The Auditors under Scanner-
7. Alleged UPA-Chidambaram Connection - 

And here is the resultant network-map explaining the scam and resultant events to provide a bird's eye view and facilitate understanding of the various connections involved in the scenario-
Understanding the PNB Scam- Illustrative Network Map
Created by Makarand Desai with Mindmup.com
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Saturday 11 March 2017

Decoding the Popular Verdict of 2017

The Year 2017 was special for Indian Political Space. The people who have interest in following, analysing political events, were crazy about : What will happen in the Assembly Elections, especially - in UP ! And after the long battle, the results are out. And... the 'saffron lotus' has flourished significantly in the muddy political arena of the largest Indian State in terms of population. The results of Punjab, Manipur, Goa and Uttarakhand are also crystal clear now. And here we go with the analysis (as usual !) :

BJP FOR UP !

Thanks to : Hindustan Times

Accept it - BJP's extraordinary performance has amazed all of us ! Even the strongest Modi-BJP Supporters weren't confident about BJP being in power on its own. It was really simple to predict BJP as the single largest party in the state. But... 325 ? BJP's own 312 and allied 13-14 more take the BJP+ Figure to 325 ! In the assembly of the largest state of India, there are 403 seats and BJP has grabbed about 325 out of them !! Now that's called a GIGANTIC VICTORY ! Actually, BJP outperformed its own best numbers in the state - which were achieved in the midst of the Hot and Sizzling Ram Mandir Andolan. This has astonished and amazed the BJP Supporters too... Reasons ?

There are few and enough to describe it in broader sense ! First is : MODI !! Narendra Modi's wave is not just a 'wave' now. It is a PHENOMENON. A new, significant and strongest force in Indian Politics is the thing and brand name of which, is called as : MODI ! It is a Pro-Hindutva, Right Wing and Pro-Development Nationalist sentiment with mass support on FB-Twitter as well as Polling Booths. India wanted a cheerful force to drive its journey towards 2020 and destiny gifted India - MODI and most important is .... Indians are loving it !! 
Thanks to : Hindustan Times

So, UP's results are the evidences of the continuing Pro-Modi sentiment in masses. And more important is : It is still so even after the process of Demonetization ! This makes me joyful and satisfied. Not just as a Modi Supporter or Pro-Hinduva youth. It makes me happy as a Citizen, as an Indian ! See... The medicines taste better and so do the reforms. And how unfortunate were we in the past decades that - seldom any leader tried to give a bitter dose for better India ! Very few had the courage, fewer had the will and hardly anyone has really done it since 1991. Modi attempted and made it possible ! It was soothing to see a leadership acting for long term benefits rather than short term appeasements. But my worries were alive ! I feared that such leadership will face the curse of Indian Polity : 'Bitter the Reforms, Harder it hits the Reformer'... But... The Local Body Civic Polls in Gujrat, Maharashtra and now the bigger and assuring verdict in UP, Uttarakhand - has proven my worries as unrealistic and no one is happier than myself ! Indians are ready for Reforms instead of hesitating them. And these Reformist Indians want Modi to do them. And Modi is doing them !! This will soothe and heal everyone who cares for India...
Thanks to : Hindustan Times

Another significant force is : The Rising of Majority Hindu Sentiment which will soon render Minority Vote Banks useless in Indian Politics. Uttar Pradesh is seen as the Capital of Communal Politics, and it is not wrong anyway. Actually - the 'Political Dynasties' which ruled UP in past few terms - were the loudest examples of Appeasement of Muslim Vote Bank. And making the thing more saddening - They were the 'success models' for other Appeasers... This was a real threat to National Well Being. Because when FATWAS and IFTARS decide elections, that too in India, it is deemed to make the KAFIRS suffer ! To my and many more nationalists' joy, the curse is coming to an end ! And the anti-dote is - the successful couterblow from the Awakening Hindu Sentiment. This is happy sign for every nationalist Indian. (And yes ! I follow Savarkar's Definition of Hindu ! So... I am not a Muslimophobe ! A birth can't be anyone's fault. But a radical, genocide-oriented, death-cult ideology is... So actually, I am Islamophobe !! Is it clear ?)

Punjabi Tadka

Thanks to : India Today

Punjab has decided to 'Thoko Taali' with the Congress's 'Hand' ! Here, BJP lost with the major partner Akali Dal, but I think even BJP already knew their fate in this state. The present government faced anti-incumbency. But the more brutal factor of the coalition in power lies in their contribution in making of 'Udta Punjab' ! Drug Smugglers should suffer, Drug Suppliers should and the 'Drug Allowers' MUST !! A nationalist will be joyful with the result as it was the best possible. Actually, AAP faced the defeat and that's why a nationalist should celebrate the Punjabi verdict ! AAP's national character is under serious suspicion ! More over, Punjab has the Khalistani movement's dark shadows and more importantly - it is a Border State; that too are shared with our- 'very beloved neighbour' : Dear Pakistan !!! So, Punjab rejected the corrupt and drug-allowers from the established coalition, Punjab refused 'Not-so-SAFE' AAP and chose the best possible option with the Congress.

Goan Recipe 

Thanks to : Firstpost

Goan position is now interesting for those who love to see political dramas ! Congress is the single largest party with 17 seats, Established BJP at 13 and OTHERS have 7 !! Now these OTHERS will decide the destiny of this term of Goan Assembly. Sitting CM has lost to the shock of BJP in Goa. Even after the 'Return of Parrikar' BJP has failed to outperform the damage caused by the rebelling Velingkar and Co.

Uttarakhand with BJP 

Thanks to : Livemint

With 57 out of 70, BJP has swept another 'Uttar' state ! Uttarakhand is a blow to Established Congress Party whose numbers slide from 32 in 2012, to 11 in 2017. The ruling CM faced the hit as expected and to make it worse - He has lost from both of the constituencies from which he was contesting ! Another state has gone with Modi and his vision for the progressive, inclusive, transparent development.

Manipuri Lesson

Thanks to : India.com

Manipur, at least as of now, is a Hung Verdict ! Congress is single largest party, but BJP ha gained marginally - fulfilling the dream of Atal Bihari Vajpayee (Remember his furious speech in which he strongly assured the opponents that : A day will come when the Lotus will appear to the rising east also !) ... 

Why Irom Lost ?

I want to address a strange but worthy point here ! A lady fasted for 16 Year, against the AFSPA, for the people. Now she tried to enter politics after realising the fruitless pains of fasting for a long. And... She hardly got 100 votes there !! What you will call this ? Cruel Joke of Politics ? Or Insensitive Public ? If yes, think with less emotions and cooler minds ! See... Agree with her or not, but the Iron Lady had sacrificed a lot for the society around her. But should people vote them to represent them for this ? due to ?? For a NICE gratitude ??? or what else....?
Thanks to : @PRJAManipur on Twitter

Actually - Votes are casted for future and not for history ! Votes are given for dreams and not for Sunk Sacrifices ! This may seem as Cruel Injustice to Irom. But... 'Sacrifices for Society' (alone) may bring you Awards and Recognition, but not VOTES ! Voters vote for electing some heads to rule them. They vote for development dreams and political agendas... Irom had one ?
Hillary Clinton had good record of past, far better than Mr. Trump ! But... people there voted for Trump's VISION and not for Hillary's TRACK RECORD ! 

This is no way negative, rather it is a healthy indicator of 'future-demanding' voting philosophy. So, I am sympathetic for Irom Sharmila, but not disappointed with the SYSTEM anyway !!

So, this is how the election results are seen by me. Continuing Modi Wave, Strengthening BJP under Modi-Shah Rule, Popular 'Ratification' of Demonetisation, Awakening Hindu Sentiment, Congress getting some Luft or breathing air in form of Punjab victory, AAP getting limited to Delhi itself, And yes... Sensible and Wise Voting by the Voters ! This will impact national politics as well as economic activity. Social Forces are undergoing changes... And yes ! New Equations are getting evolved to redefine the 'Political Correctness' and after all, demanding a serious review of the 'established theories' of Political Pundits... After all, HAPPY HOLI to all my readers, and I am pretty sure that this HOLI of 2017 will be remembered for the 'Bright Colours' of Democratic Politics in Indian History !


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Saturday 17 December 2016

Journey To Cashless Via Demonetisation

Demonetisation... Cashless... Banks... ATMs... Queues... Rs.2000 Notes... are the Key Words of Indian News Articles since the big bang announcement made by Prime Minister on 8th November, at Night ! Everywhere - at tea stalls, restaurants, bus stops, shops, streets - people are buzzing about the terms : Demonetisation and Cashless ! Pro-govt people are arguing for its Pros, and Opposition is fighting hard to expose the flaws therein ! But it is necessary to analyse the impacts with cooler mind, and it is more important to put forward handy information about 'Being Cashless'. In this article, we will first touch the impacts of Demonetisation which are related to 'Cashless' dimension. Then I will try to put forward the available and emerging techniques that will aid people in going Cashless and Digital ! It will be an honest attempt to make this article a 'Simple and Handy Info Packet' for the readers, which will help to solve the petty annoying doubts and problems faced while going for 'Cashless' transactions. So, here we go...

Firstly, I want to make some stuff clear and straight. Otherwise some of my Cynic and Skeptic friends will rush to comment about 'How being CASHLESS is not possible' ! See... Here, the term Cashless means people using digital money, using banking channels to execute their day-to-day transactions digitally ! For god's sake, please don't misinterpret it as 'Attempt to move towards Barter'... (BARTER ? How on this earth you can imagine that, Mr. 'Cynic' Pessimist ?) So, here Cash refers to the Currency printed on papers ! And going Cashless means a marginal shift towards Digital Currency and reduced use of Paper Notes.

After we have now done away with 'an early disclaimer', let's we move to the subject with comfort ! If we take into account the overall efforts by Modi Govt and the scenario after the date of 8th, following points come into mind :

  1. Demonetisation is the greatest 'Happening' thing in Indian Economic History of recent times. It has made an devstating as well as decisive impacts for sure.
  2. Demonetisation has several intended (or Alleged !) viz. Shock to the Fake Currency Gangs, Heavy blow to the people who used to store bundles under their beds and especially those people who used cash routes to suppress their Gross Total Income in Return Forms ! But one of the most long lasting impact is : It has given a Push to the 'Cashless' dream and has set the ball rolling ! Cashless brings Transparency, saves Time and fosters efficiency ! This is too simple to explain it furthermore here.
  3. Earlier people, even the young generation was somehow 'reluctant' about using Cashless mediums of payments ! Especially in Small Cities and Towns, leave alone the villagers. Demonetisation has destroyed their Safe Heaven of Paper Notes for a while, at least. This has forced some people and inspired others to try the new-age currency formats ! To go Digital and to use Mobile Handsets for something more productive than 'WhatsApp Chatting' !
  4. And the allegation by many Cashless-Cynics - that : 'How villages, farmers, workers can do that ?' - I want to say : 
"Dude, please come out of your Binary Mindset of Haves and Have Nots ! When Rajiv Gandhi and Sam Pitroda tried introducing Cellphones and Computers to Indians, exactly same Cynic-logic of Village-victimization had been put forward by similar tendencies ! Now look at 'Today'... Feature Phones are more common than Landlines in Villages. Smart Phones are getting increased spread with their declining prices. Now village teens have WhatsApp Groups ! Reality is - Villages and Small Towns follow Mega Cities ! Every Reform, especially related to Sophisticated Technology initiates in Cities ! Then after 4-5 years it spreads completely in most remote corners of landscape ! So, don't try to oppose a Good Reform by playing the False Victim Card under tags of Villages..."

Now, after briefly touching the analysis points, I directly move to the most important part of this article. That is providing a list of existing and emerging 'Cashless' technologies with handy tips, 'How-To's and information about them -
  • Net Banking - This is the currently ruling monarch of Digital Economy environment. Net Banking needs no explanation. Problem with traditional Net Banking was it needed a P.C. and a bunch of passwords. So, very few can use it for day-to-day transactions. But it is the Granddaddy of these Cashless-Tech generation, upon which the newer inventions are based.
  • Debit Cards - In India, where most of the people see 'Personal Debt' negatively, Debit Card had to be more popular than Credit Cards. Debit Cards are everywhere today. They are the actual 'Saviours' in the distress of Cash Crunch caused by Demonetisation.  Now, Govt has removed the Service Tax on Debit Card transactions, so no one needs to hesitate while carrying the Plastic Card in his/her wallet/purse ! With Debit Cards, nowadays we can avail facility of 'Cash Deposits' in addition to the 'Cash Withdrawal' options. This will reduce the work of Cashiers and release public from the inconvenience of filling 'Deposit Slips' ! More E-Banking Spots, Galleries are needed to eliminate the queues in banks, benefitting both Bank Machinery and Customers.
  • PayTM - See... PayTM is not just another Private Company ! For India, it is a revolution indeed. (TThere is nothing like Vijay Shekhar Sharma sponsors my blog !!) However, we Indians see Private Companies, Business Units with Cynic and Pessimist attitude. See... FACEBOOK is a Private Organisation, not State-run one. Still, it is way useful for government itself ! Same thing applies to Twitter, Google, etc. So, we should not 'Avoid' or 'Refuse' PayTM due to its Private Ownership. It is an innovation, benchmark and Technology-Utility for Indian Economy. Adding to my love for PayTM, the Mobile Wallet App-provider Company has removed the 'Wallet To Bank Transfer Charges' as PayTM is now getting converted into a 'Payment Bank' with RBI Approval ! So, don't hesitate to enjoy the benefits of PayTM, by reading some misleading 'Anti-PayTM appeals' forwarded to you on WhatsApp or Facebook ! You can use PayTM for Paying as well as Getting Paid !! Itts QR Code facility is awesome. I have myself tried it.
    So, don't hesitate to enjoy the benefits of PayTM, by reading some misleading 'Anti-PayTM appeals' forwarded to you on WhatsApp or Facebook ! You can use PayTM for Paying as well as Getting Paid !! Itts QR Code facility is awesome. I have myself tried it. And all you need is : A Smartphone with Net Connection, PayTM App Installed and your QR Code printed on your business place ! Here's a picture taken by me, proving how the Technology can be used by everyone who is positive about it -
    Spot- A snacks stall in Ratnagiri, Maharastra
  • UPI Apps - Now, a new child is already born to compete with PayTM and Debit Card. Problem is - the Tech is still in its Developing Process. Once all of the major banks integrate with UPI system, we will enjoy a Secure, Fast, Convenient and Bank-Authorized - Mobile App that will enable you to do all your banking on your own handset ! UPI is backed by Govt's National Payments Corporation of India i.e. NPCI.  UPI links the Mobile Phone with Bank Account via Aadhar Authentication !! At present SBI, HDFC, ICICI and some other banks are already into it ! Still, other banks need to launch there own Apps... But here is a recent news, which will Change the Game ! The Govt is into play !! They are bringing an Aadhar-based Mobile UPI App which can be used with any bank account... So, brace yourself ! In few days, you can scan your fingerprint and make a Payment to your Merchant without need to fill NEFT Form or even Swipe the plastic token !! Here's a pic explaining UPI mechanism -
    Image Credits : Livemint.com
  • USSD Banking/NUUP - It is actually a complementary benefit of UPI Architecture. But it is special for its own reasons ! The best thing with USSD Banking is : You don't need a Smartphone nor you need Internet Connectivity or Data Pack !! Now, what is USSD ? USSD means : Unstructured Supplementary Service Data ! Sounds like a Techno-Jargon, right ? Don't worry folks, you already use it !! Have you ever checked balance by dialing *121# or *125# ?? That's it !! For Banking, it is - *99# now ! Dial it, navigate through the options with numeric pad and transact money... You can do it from Nokia 3310c too ! No Jio needed too... Actually, you don't need to expend a single paisa for data pack too !! I think these are enough 'Too's to prove its worthiness !!! USSD Banking is based on MMID and MPIN. MMID stands for 'Mobile Money Identifier' MPIN is just another PIN for securing your transaction, that you will remember (Without writing it anywhere !)... NPCI is behind this. They call it NUUP : National Unified USSD Platform. (To many short forms, huh !) (Don't forget to refer the FAQs about NUUP provided by NCPI. The link is below, in References section.) Now look at these graphics to understand - 'How To Use It' : 
    Image Credits : upipayments.co.in
So...you have now the basic idea about the emerging CASHLESS-TECH. Don't hesitate to use it... It doesn't mean it hasn't any risks ! But there is a risk in browsing Facebook or walking on road too. Be wise, don't share PINs with anyone else. Now on, your Mobile Phone will be your access pad for Banking. So, take more care of your Mobile Phone henceforth !

In this article, I have tried my best to put forth a brief analysis of Cashless drive of Indian Economy, which got a push by Demonetisation. I have attempted to explain the Cashless-Tech in simplest language as possible. In addition, I have given a bunch of informative links in the Reference section below. Still, if you are left with any doubt or confusion, feel free to ask in comment box ! I will definitely try to answer ! And yes... If you find it handy, share the link of this article with your friends (Share Link so that they can get all the graphics, links, etc. and by the way... Copy Pasting is not that good !!)... 

Demonetisation has given a push to set the 'Cashless' ball rolling ! Now it is up to us to 'keep it rolling' for our own sake ! Let's do a little for achieving a Common Social Victory !!

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Sunday 6 November 2016

CPEC & Indian Strategic Dilemma

CPEC is the term of the moment for Geo-Political topics ! CPEC is the famous abbreviation of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a grand project which has capabilities of changing the Asian Balance of Power... Actually, it seems a Bilateral Economic Transaction between the Dragon and Islamabad. But actually it has a hidden party ! The 'ghost party' having interest in CPEC is New Delhi... Actually, it is an open secret that Indian neighborhood is not 'goody goody' at all, especially when North-West frontiers of Indian Territory are concerned. So, CPEC is indeed a big issue as far as Indian Foreign Policy is concerned ! We will take a tour of the Geo-political Conditions and Possible Indian 'Course of Actions' related to CPEC in this article...

Let's have a brief introduction with the Idea and Reality of CPEC... Here are some points which will help you to get it clear -
  • CPEC is a Bilateral Economic Agreement.
  • Pakistan will get Investment, Energy Setups and Roads built. The investment, China is making in CPEC, amounts to around $46 Billion ! It means approx. 3 Lakh Crores of Indian Rupee. So, it is a huge investment and Pakistan is getting it without having to pay it back in Direct Monetary terms.
  • China has some complex interests in CPEC. They are spending such a huge sum of money (not surely for any CHARITY !!) for developing Pakistan. In return, Beijing is eyeing on the Geo-Political 'Sweet Pastry' of Gwadar port ! It is important for China as the de-facto route of their foreign trade, i,e, South China-Pacific Region is facing some threats. The problems are caused by some historic conflict about the ownership of Islands in the South China Sea. To add to the headache of China, USA has tremendous influence over there, due their superior navy and geographical placement of the region. So, China is badly trying for 'An Alternate Trade Route' which will be safe and away from the direct influence of Uncle Sam ! So, CPEC is the answer to the Chinese problem of 'Safe Trade Route'... So, the excessive sums of money, China is spending on CPEC, will be totally justified, if China gets access to the Gwadar Port via Pakistan as per their planning...
  • In addition, China will reduce the costs of Transportation significantly with a secure access to the Gwadar Port is achieved by them. In addition, China's strategic access to the narrow maritime region of that part, is equally significant for them.
  • CPEC will have a tremendous impact on Baluchistan. Gwadar, itself, is located in Baluchistan. So, once China gets its 'Iron Grip' over the region, the Indian Ambitions of 'Free Baluchistan' will become 'Nearly Impossible'. Here is the map of CPEC for better understanding of its  possible geographical impact - 
So, now you have a clear idea about the Basic Concept of CPEC and its mutual benefits for China and Pakistan. Now let's move to its implications with regard to Indian interests. Here are the major effects or impacts on India due to CPEC -
  1. Stronger Bonds between the Annoying Neighbors - This is the most 'easy-to-understand' points. Already, China and Pakistan are close to each others in order to counter Indian Interests in the region. Now, after CPEC this 'Affair' will convert to 'Marriage' actually !! So, if Indian Rivals are teaming up, India will be affected by that thing !
  2. Feeling of Being Surrounded by Dragon - India is already fighting against the 'Ring of Pearls' strategy of China in the Indian Ocean. After CPEC, China will have a permanent presence in Pakistan, that too - officially ! In addition, China enters into the North Asian Sea after its access of Gwadar. So, India has a threat of being surrounded by the Dragon and CPEC adds to the headache of New Delhi !
  3. Pakistan gets stronger - This actually doesn't need any explanation. The age-old rival of India becomes powerful if CPEC becomes functional. That too with Chinese aide ! So, CPEC will annoy India for sure.
  4. Threat to the Indian Supplies of Oil - The distance between India's Chabahar Port in Iran and Gwadar Port is not more than 100 Kms ! This route is also important for existing Oil supplies of India. So, Chinese access of the 'Straits of Hormuz' will undoubtedly add to the complexities, for Indian side.
After knowing about the Strategic Implications of CPEC on India, we can now comfortably move towards the 'Dilemma' ! Actually, many Indian Analysts view CPEC as a Curse ! A majority of Indian thinkers want New Delhi to escalate 'some firework' over the region, in order to disrupt the CPEC Plan... Indian Government has not taken any official stance or has not published any comprehensive doctrine against CPEC. India is immediately concerned with the 'Via POK' status of CPEC ! Indian Prime Minister, Shri. Narendra Modi has officially raised concern about this thing. But as the POK is a historic and lengthy, pending dispute; China will not be bothered that much due to such objection from Indian side. Apart from this 'Via POK' thing, New Delhi hasn't any declared plan vis-a-vis the overall CPEC development.

So, the prevalent question is -  "How should India react to CPEC" ?
Positive or Negative are the alternatives. India will face it hard to 'Morally Justify' to put obstacles in CPEC. Because the POK issue is minor and China will not be bothered any more due to the 'PENDING' label of the age-old Kashmir problem. So, how India can morally oppose the CPEC in whole ? It seems difficult as India can't openly say that - "We don't want Pakistan to develop" !! So, if India decides to oppose it, it will be through Proxy War and secret tactics ! Baluchistan is 'the key' then... 

But what about India dealing positively or neutrally with the CPEC happening ? 
There is a possibility of Chinese Colonisation of Pakistan ! Even Pakistani Analysts predict this outcome. Pakistan is actually a fragile state. With no co-operation between the Civilian Executive and Military Warlords, Pakistan can be an easy 'Prey' for a 'Predator' like China in long term ! (Readers should take into account - what China did to Tibet too some extent, Nepal too !)  So, this will be 'Game Changer' for India too !! Because, it is reasonable to feel safer with China haveing grip over Pakistan rather than some irresponsible Jihadi cult having the access to nukes... China is a rival of India, but an economic partner too ! So, China will prefer ''Military Peace' to promote its aggression in the terms of Trade and Business. Actually, the threat from China to India is largely economic and hardly in terms of a Military Attack ! Because both of countries are the rising superpowers of world, they will hardly prefer any Military Confrontation on large scale. But present Pakistan is not like that ! India has a 'Real Permanent Threat' of Military Violence from irresponsible leadership Pakistan. So, CPEC and consequent Chinese domination of Pakistan can be viewed as a 'Positive Factor' for India from this 'Point of View' !!

But, India can't trust China ! 
At least, Indian History will not allow any Trust like that ! So, many analysts point out at the possibility of China intentionally escalating the problems in Kashimr, after its dominance in Pakistan. China can use Pakistan as buffer state too !! If China comes out with a setup of 'Puppet Govt in Pakistan' + 'Controlling Jihadis' + 'Using them against India'; this will be a serious trouble to Indian security interests ! So, the 'fear' is not actually baseless. It has historical background and Chinese Expansionism adds to the points !

So, this is the 'Dilemma' !!

A strategic Dilemma will be faced by New Delhi in near future ! The Indian Leadership has to solve it in order to come up with a Concrete Plan or Well-Thought Stance about CPEC. The stance taken by Indian Think-Tank will have a long lasting impact on the Balance of Power in Asia. CPEC is not bilateral ! It is more like a 'Geo-Political Love Triangle' !! So, New Delhi has to decide - whether to let Beijing marry to Islamabad officially via CPEC, or put some problems in this relationship to secure Indian Interests...

REFERENCES AND More About CPEC issue ->

  1. A Youtube Video by Dr. Gaurav Garg about Indian Implications of CPEC -   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hd_z9kf8AeE&spfreload=10
  2. Detailed Presentation on CPEC with Help of Interactive Story Map  https://www.thethirdpole.net/2016/06/10/story-map-china-pakistan-corridor-best-with/
  3. Relationship between Gwadar and Chabahar - 'A Tale of Two Ports' -  http://worldnewsreport.in/a-tale-of-two-ports-gwadar-versus-chahbahar/
  4. PM Modi's Concern over 'Via POK' route of CPEC -http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/prime-minister-narendra-modi-raises-indias-concern-over-cpec-which-runs-through-pok-3013260/
  5. Quora Discussions about the Topic of China Pakistan Economic Corridor -  https://www.quora.com/topic/China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor
  6.  A Documentary about CPEC and Gwadar by a Pakistani News Channel -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcorWyyz5_w
  7. Aapas Ki Baat with Najam Sethi - His Analysis of CPEC issue -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4Ae9ppB-eg
  8. All images and maps used for illustration in the article, are the intellectual property of their original creators and web sites. Courtesy - Google Images
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Monday 10 October 2016

Fighting the Jinx of Triple Talaq


Narendra Modi Government has recently taken a welcome step ! It's about the affidavit which was filed by Union Law Ministry (headed by Shri. Ravi Shankar Prasad) in Supreme Court with connection to a matter about constitutionality of Triple Talaq and Polygamy issues. The affidavit openly opposes the practices of Triple Talaq and Polygamy... We will try to analyse and understand some crucial points about the issue in this article...
To make readers more familiar with the concept of Triple Talaq and Polygamy practiced in Muslims; we start with some basic explanation. Triple Talaq means a Muslim Husband can divorce with his Wife by saying Talaq Talaq Talaq in single sitting or at multiple occasions. And this is lawful in the 'Secular' state of India !! 

Because ? India has Muslim Personal Law (which has its origins in Sharia Code) functioning till now ! Muslims and their Civil Life are governed by the Muslim Personal Law. This has an impact on Muslim Women which is making their life 'Pathetic' in actual sense. All the practices which are harmful, derogatory and anti-welfare, get shelter behind the Personal Law for Muslims ! This, in turn, is providing a 'Constitutional Shelter' for the evil practices of Sharia Code. The condition is further more dangerous, when we take into account recent statement by All India Muslim Personal Law Board in Supreme Court. AIMPLB has officially said that, "Courts have no right to decide about Muslim Personal Law !"... The Pseudo-Secular Brigade of our country, hasn't uttered a single word here ! These people are called 'Sickulars' and this is the reason for why they are called so !!

In addition to this 'Triple Talaq' practice, the Muslim Personal Law provides shelter to the 'Polygamy' for Muslim Husband ! This has tremendously impacted the mass population of Muslim Women. There are around 18 Crores of Muslims in India at present. It means (roughly) 8.50-9 Crores of population in India is living under a Sinister civil code. The civil code which sees them as 'Property' of their Husbands, as a 'Material' to cover in Burqa, and as Secondary Citizens of Community ! Recently, Smt. Maneka Gandhi has said that the status of Muslim Women is far more better in many Muslim Countries than in Secular India ! This can be held as a factual statement or Irony, but it is a painful reality for everyone who cares for 'India' !

Now let we have a look at the causes of this problem. At the time of Constitution's development, due to several reasons (Political Compulsions mostly), the Civil Law wasn't made 'Common' for all over India. This left scope for personal laws. And thanks to Dr. Ambedkar's luminary work, Hindus are under a FAIR civil law, which abolished Manu Smriti and other traditional practices which was derogatory to Women of Hindu Community. But unfortunately, Muslim Personal Law prevailed. Despite of the 'Directive Principles' of Constitution under Article 44, the Party who was in Power for most of the time after independence; never actually tried for a 'Uniform Civil Code' ! Irony is Congress calls itself Secular and labels BJP as Communal. But Congress has actively supported this Jinx which is haunting Muslim Women in the country.

Our Country has witnessed the Sin which Congress and its leadership has committed in 'Shah Bano' case ! Congress has not only remained inactive against the Jinx of Talaq and Polygamy... Congress has Actively Supported this curse for their ugly political ideology ! Congress lost the right to call themselves Secular anymore, when they reversed a Positive Decision of Supreme Court with help of their Numerical Strength in Parliament.
But now, the Time has changed ! A Party which is fundamentally supporting Uniform Civil Code is in Power with full majority ! Narendra Modi is known for his dashing and vigorous decision making ! So, the country expects that NaMo and his Govt should push this issue hard in order to crack the deadlock which is causing this Jinx ! This affidavit of Union Law Ministry is a good start in that direction. It can be viewed as a little but positive step towards Uniform Civil Code, But.....

The affidavit is not firm enough ! It may be structured so as to push the issue without major opposition. But a firmer stand is expected, especially when a Govt led by Narendra Modi is in center. The affidavit says - "The practice of Talaq is quashed in some Muslim Countries too, so India should move on too"... This stand is safer as it will not face stern opposition ! But actually an honest and truly effective stand could have been - "Let the Theocratic states and Islamic Sharia do whatever ! We are SOVEREIGN, SECULAR country. And the Evil Practices of Talaq and Polygamy must be quashed even if any religion supports it, for the sake of Public Welfare."... So, the affidavit is not STRONG enough as I expected it to be ! But, it is indeed a good positive step and we expect more, stronger moves in this matter from Modi Govt !!
To conclude, I want to stress upon my original point again ! India is SECULAR SOVEREIGN nation state. So, if we don't grant the benefits of Secularism to Nine Crores of Population, we can't avoid a tag of Hypocrites as a country. And this is the right 'Muhurta' too ! As a strong, nationalist Govt in center, I expect some solid, bold steps towards Uniform Civil Code from NaMo and his team. This will be a 'Political' Win-Win for BJP too... Because they can either succeed and take credit Or will be able to expose those Sickulars who oppose such move !! So, the Time is good, Opportunity is there.. So, 'BHARATMATA' awaits for a Strong 'ACTION' from Narendra Modi Government to put an end to this Historical Jinx !

Here are some links for reference and more detailed reading -


(Notes - 
i.The credit for the Images used in the article goes to the Original Websites, Media Houses and Google Images.
ii.An Edited version of this has been published on 'The Frustrated Indian' website.)
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