Democracy and population aren’t new concepts to India! Democracy has been thriving here for almost three-quarters of a century, while in terms of population, we’ve made such “stellar progress” that we’ve now clinched the number one spot globally! The goal of this series is to give readers a basic introduction to the complex conundrums that the bizarre arithmetic of population has thrown at democratic systems today! The main focus of this series will revolve around India’s upcoming delimitation, the ongoing North-South tussle related to it, its impact on Maharashtra, the BIMARU states being sustained by the tax revenues of progressive states, and similar issues.
But since this is a global question, before diving into India’s mess, I thought we should first get a little more acquainted with the topic. So, in this series, we’ll take a detour through places like Korea and the Gulf before tackling India’s problems head-on! With that, here’s the first installment of this series...
Part 1: The Tangle of Korean Noodles!
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| South Korea has developed into one of Asia's most affluent countries since partition in 1948. The Communist North has slipped into totalitarianism and poverty. |
South Korea is one of the decisive blows capitalism dealt to communism in world history! There are few places on Earth as prosperous as South Korea. The economic progress it has achieved in such a short time is jaw-dropping.
South Korea’s per capita income is more than ten times ours. If we look at 2022 figures, on the Human Development Index—a key economic metric—India scores a modest 0.644 out of 1.000, while South Korea clocks in at an impressive 0.929! It’s counted among the world’s most advanced nations.
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| The O2 Arena in London during Blackpink's concert. |
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| The K-pop group BLACKPINK performs in Los Angeles during their Born Pink World Tour, November 20, 2022. (Christopher Polk / Penske Media via Getty Images) |
Now that we’ve poured a ladleful of oil in tribute to this Korean saga, let’s turn to their population! Currently, South Korea’s population hovers around 50 million, with about 10 million of them packed into the capital, Seoul alone.
To understand the population problem in South Korea, let’s first crunch some basic stats. TFR, or Total Fertility Rate, is an indicator that shows, on average, how many children women in a reproductive age group give birth to. If a population’s TFR is around 2.1, it can sustain itself at its current level without importing people from outside. This is called the “replacement-level TFR.” If anyone wants to solve the math behind how 2.1 was arrived at, they’ll have to ask ChatGPT! For now, let’s just keep this number in mind and move on...
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| A 2023 map of countries by fertility rate. Blue indicates negative fertility rates. Red indicates positive rates. |
According to 2023 government data, South Korea’s TFR is a mere 0.72! To grasp how massive the gap between 2.1 and 0.72 is, in simple terms—by the end of this century, South Korea might be reduced to just a third of what it is today!
These are just numbers, but when birth rates plummet this drastically and the average age rises, you can end up with a weird situation: more old people and fewer workers. This can spark a host of grim social problems, political dilemmas, and economic crises! Today’s financial capitalism operates on the assumption that future generations will earn and spend more than us, racking up massive government debt to keep things rolling. As long as succeeding generations keep climbing the income-and-spending ladder, this strategy fuels development... But what if the next generation is half the size? Or just a third? Or if their TFR drops even lower?
Now, someone might ask, “Why did this happen?” or “Even if it did, what’s stopping a rich country like this from boosting its TFR? Lock everyone down, throw money into their accounts, and problem solved!!” But this issue isn’t as simple as it seems...
Capitalist democracies worldwide introduced universal suffrage and complementary women’s empowerment laws, increasing women’s participation in the economy. Add to that advancements in reproductive health tools and medical technology, and the number of earning hands grew. As democratic nations progress and prosperity rises, women’s independent existence within families strengthens, they become more decision-makers, and the TFR drops—a trend seen globally. Something similar happened in Korea too!
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| Total fertility rate vs Human Development Index for selected countries, 2011 |
Now, reading about this TFR issue, some Andrew Tate disciple might lose it and start ranting that women are to blame! How these folks fail to grasp the basic point that systemic problems aren’t solved by villainizing one group—and how women end up targeted in all this—is something we’ll discuss in detail later in this series. For now, let’s just look at South Korea’s numbers...
Back in the ’80s, Korea’s TFR was well above 2.1. By 2000, it had nearly halved, and now it’s sunk to 0.72! This shift over a few decades is striking. During the same period, Korea’s political, economic, social, and cultural boom is also undeniable.
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Change of total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth (LEB) of South Korea and those of Japan between 1960 and 2016 |
After reading this Korean epic, someone might say, “Why not just bring in people from outside? Why not migration? If you need people, just get them from Bihar!”—you might even see such ideas pop up in the comments! But what happens when a country imports people on a massive scale? We’re seeing the consequences right now in Europe and America... To dive deeper into this “importing people” idea, we’ll take a trip to the Gulf in the next part! Until then, 안녕히 가세요
Original Marathi Blog Article: लोकशाही आणि लोकसंख्येचा यक्षप्रश्न - भाग १
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