Monday, 24 March 2025

Democracy, Demography & Destiny : Part 3

This series is designed to give readers a basic grasp of the confounding puzzles that the strange arithmetic of population poses to democratic systems today! In this third installment, we’ll wander into the world of the fair-skinned—the West—to discuss population and democracy issues tied to migration...

Part 3: The West’s Invitation!

Migration to the West isn’t exactly a new phenomenon for India. Every year, thousands of Indians become non-residents for reasons like education, jobs, or personal growth! Lately, as communication and transport have become easier, more accessible, and cheaper, this trend has only grown year after year...

Now, here’s a key point: for decades, Western countries have consistently pursued migration-friendly policies! In the last part, we saw how the UAE puts tight restrictions on granting citizenship to migrants. Western nations, on the other hand, adopted liberal policies, and as a result, talent from across the globe started pooling in the West. Take America, for instance—the “American Dream” and its liberal migration policies gifted the US tech titans like Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella, and Elon Musk! Google, Microsoft, and Tesla—mega-powerful American companies—are led by migrants. 

These are the flashy examples—now let’s look at the data! Of all the US companies valued at a billion dollars or more, over half (55%) were founded by people who came from outside! Forbes, a big name in the business world, summarized a research report from the National Foundation of American Policy in 2022. Here’s a juicy bit worth noting:

“Immigrants have started more than half (319 of 582, or 55%) of America’s startup companies valued at $1 billion or more,” the analysis. “Moreover, nearly two-thirds (64%) of U.S. billion-dollar companies (unicorns) were founded or cofounded by immigrants or the children of immigrants. Almost 80% of America’s unicorn companies (privately-held, billion-dollar companies) have an immigrant founder or an immigrant in a key leadership role, such as CEO or vice president of engineering.”

You’ll see a similar picture, more or less, in Canada and Europe too! The Brits even went as far as making the son-in-law of Infosys’s famously “simple and pure” Sudhabai Murthy—yes, Rishi Sunak—their Prime Minister! Sunak’s parents, of Indian descent, migrated to Britain from Africa. Meanwhile, London’s mayor for the past nine years, Sadiq Khan, has grandparents who moved there from Pakistan. You’ll find such examples across nearly every major field in the Western world.

Rishi Sunak and Akshata Murthy with their pet dog Nova in No 10
.(Photo: Simon Walker/No 10 Downing Street)

For decades, skilled workers from around the globe have flowed westward, and it’s been a clear win-win for both the host countries and the migrants! These nations’ economies kept getting stronger, which made even more skilled folks eager to head there—a virtuous cycle of prosperity that spun for years... Check the HDI (Human Development Index) of these migrant-welcoming countries, and it gets even clearer. 

World map of countries and territories by HDI scores in increments of 0.050
(based on 2022 data, published in 2024)
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index#/media/File:HDI2022Incrimental.svg

Based on 2022 figures, the US clocks in at 0.927. Canada does even better at 0.935, while the UK—home to Sudhabai’s PM son-in-law—hits 0.940. For comparison, India’s HDI in the same year is just 0.644. Since this index measures prosperity, health, and education, it’s obvious that these Western nations, scoring above 0.900, are brimming with both wealth and well-being!

Now, as we saw in the Korean case earlier in this series, prosperity tends to tank birth rates (TFR)—and that trend holds true in the West too! Birth rates among Western citizens started dipping in the ’60s and ’70s. By 2000, they’d fallen below the replacement level of 2.1. Looking at this decade’s numbers, Europe’s TFR is 1.53, while North America’s is 1.8. It’s not as dire as Korea, but the decline has been steady and significant...

The total fertility rate in OECD countries, 2023
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#/media/File:Fertility_rate_in_OECD.svg

Yet, despite this drop in birth rates, Western countries kept progressing unabated because skilled workers kept pouring in from around the world. The success of this migration policy owes a lot to neoliberal ideology. Free trade, open borders allowing the free flow of labor, and a complementary culture of inclusivity and tolerance—these were the hallmarks of neoliberalism. There’s even a Reddit community of American neoliberals (r/neoliberal) with a slogan that sums it up: "Free trade, open borders; taco trucks on every corner"!

The benefits of this policy for Western economies are undeniable. But it’s not just that—it also gave rise to cosmopolitan cities. People from all over settled there, decking out these cities with their languages, arts, music, festivals, and cuisines! In metropolises like London, New York, and Toronto, you can find Marathi vada pav, Gujarati dhokla, Punjabi butter chicken, Bengali rasgulla, Udupi idli, Korean noodles, Chinese rice, Mexican tacos, and Italian pizza all in the same lane!!

Punjab restaurant, Neal Street, Covent Garden
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Punjab_restaurant,_Neal_Street,_Covent_Garden_01.jpg

So, by successfully rolling out immigration-friendly neoliberal policies, Western democracies kept their economic prosperity and cultural richness on an upward trajectory for decades. Migration fueled prosperity, and prosperity fueled more migration—this development cycle hummed along smoothly until about 2010-2015! Then, enter our beloved Trump Tata, storming the stage with a spicy twist that forced this Western neoliberal system to rethink all its equations!!

In this part, we’ve traced how the West’s migration-friendly policies turbocharged their prosperity and richness, and how they managed the population puzzle of declining birth rates over the past few decades. In the next part, we’ll gauge the direction of the Trump tornado, diving into the rising ethno-nationalism and cultural nationalism in the West, along with topics like the “holy land” and “fatherland” vibes! Until then, adiós...

Original Marathi Blog Article: लोकशाही आणि लोकसंख्येचा यक्षप्रश्न - भाग ३

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