This series aims to give readers a basic understanding of the perplexing puzzles that the bizarre mathematics of population poses to democratic systems today! In the last part, we explored South Korea’s population problem. Now, in this second installment, we’ll take a stroll through the Gulf region to discuss issues tied to migration...
Part 2: The Wealthy Gulf’s Non-Citizen Residents!
We recently won the Champions Trophy! Thanks to the grace of Shri Shri Shri Jay Shah, India’s matches weren’t held in Pakistan but breezed through in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with stadiums packed to the brim with Indian fans in Dubai. Bollywood songs echoing through the stands? We’ve been seeing this since the 2020 IPL in Dubai...
So why do big cricket tournaments, IPL auctions, and such events flock to the UAE? It’s because of the reputation it’s earned—especially Dubai—as a business hub. With an efficient administration, business-friendly laws, reasonable taxes, and strict law enforcement, these Arab Emirates have turned a desert into paradise!
 |
| Museum of the Future (Arabic: متحف المستقبل)[1] is a building located in the Financial District of Dubai, UAE. |
When rulers create a business-friendly environment, resist the temptation of oppressive taxes, and provide a safe atmosphere for people, even a harsh geographical setting can yield robust economic prosperity—the Emirates are a shining example of this! Now, if someone thinks this line is a sly dig at our esteemed Sethji and Nirmala Sitharaman aunty, well, we can’t help it—sorry, not sorry!!
Anyway, the prosperity brought by oil in the UAE meant that, despite its traditional Islamic monarchical rule, the birth rate among its citizen population started declining! Once upon a time, fertile women in the UAE averaged six kids each, but as prosperity grew, that rate dropped. Today, it’s just a tad above 2.1.
But here’s the catch: with only a few lakh citizens (the Emirati class) in the UAE, even their earlier high fertility rate wouldn’t have been enough to sustain economic growth while battling the region’s harsh environment! However, the UAE’s monarchy foresaw the risk of ending up with too many old folks and too few working hands long ago and crafted a migration policy accordingly. They shaped laws and tax structures to match, bolstered by the solid backing of their oil wealth...
 |
Dubai cityscape changes (1990-2005) |
Thanks to these policies, since the ’90s, the UAE has been flooded with workers, white-collar professionals, traders, and entrepreneurs from abroad! As a result, between 2000 and 2010, the country’s total population surged significantly, crossing 8 million. By 2020, it hit 9 million, and as of 2025 figures, the UAE’s total population now exceeds 10 million!
The largest chunk of this workforce migrating to the UAE for jobs or business comes from India alone. Roughly more than a third of the total migrant population in the UAE hails from India. Following India, Pakistan and Bangladesh send the next biggest shares of workers to the Emirates.
 |
| A signboard in UAE featuring English, Arabic, Urdu, Hindi, Malayalam, Tamil, and Telugu. |
Here’s a striking detail: since most of these migrants are men, the UAE’s overall gender ratio has skewed to over 2:1! Apart from Qatar, you’d be hard-pressed to find such a lopsided gender balance in any other country...
Now, this massive influx of manpower since 1990 has fueled tremendous economic growth in the UAE. Today, with a total population of just over 10 million, their GDP has soared to around $550 billion! Their Human Development Index (HDI), based on 2022 figures, stands at an impressive 0.937. For comparison, India’s HDI is just 0.644...
 |
| UAE Human Development Index indicators |
This makes it clear that the UAE’s monarchy has successfully leveraged migration policies to build an oasis in the desert. But what exactly is the population puzzle here? Let’s dig in! As of today’s numbers, only 12% of the UAE’s population are citizens!! Read that again: if you’re wandering around the UAE and randomly meet 100 people, barely 12 of them will be citizens... So, what about the rest?
 |
UaE's total population and estimates of the proportion of non-nationals in census years (1975; 1980; 1985; 1995; 2005 and 2010 |
Now, someone might think, “Oh, this must only apply to poor laborers who go there temporarily!” Nope, not quite. Say you land a fat paycheck job or invest a few million Arab dollars there—the UAE might roll out the red carpet with a Golden Visa or some premium residency deal! You can live there carefree, settle with your family, and hit up Burj Khalifa for fun every day! But even then, citizenship? Not happening!!
The UAE grants citizenship under super strict criteria. Until 2021, you had a slim shot at it only if you married a local citizen, received a civic honor, or were recognized for some exceptional talent. Even after 2021 loosened things up a bit, the conditions remain pretty tough. Under the new rules, only a tiny fraction qualify for citizenship! Whether you’re a Golden Visa holder or a regular worker, you get residency, not citizenship...
 |
| In January 2021, the UAE Government approved amendments to the ‘Executive Regulation of the Citizenship and Passports Law’ (page in Arabic) allowing specific categories of foreigners, their spouses and children to acquire the Emirati nationality. |
Someone might say, “Fine, maybe we don’t get it, but surely our kids will!” Nope—citizenship pathways in the UAE aren’t that simple either. In Europe or the US, many places offer naturalization or birth-right citizenship, where kids born to resident migrants can become citizens of that country. But the UAE doesn’t open that door either. Barring exceptions, only kids of citizens automatically become citizens. Kids born in the UAE to non-citizens get residency, not citizenship!!
So, you could live your whole life there—work, pay their reasonable taxes, spend, marry, have kids, settle, retire, grow old—and still, you’d just be a resident! Not a citizen!! And your kids? They’d follow in your footsteps—going to school, growing up, and working as non-citizen residents too...
This is how the UAE’s monarchy solves its population riddle! There, 88% of the population aren’t citizens. The 12% who are citizens live happily as dependents, and that’s their real political status! Even a Golden Visa holder can be booted out anytime if they don’t toe the line—the administration openly holds that power! Here in India, even a guy sleeping on the pavement can contest elections, fight the government as a citizen with rights, and no one can say, “Follow this rule, or we’ll toss you into Lanka!!” That’s the difference between being a citizen and a resident...
In this series, we’re actually exploring population questions tied to democracy. Yet, I deliberately based this second part on the UAE’s monarchical system. Why? So that, as we discuss migration as a potential solution to population issues in future parts, you’ll clearly remember the massive gap between being a citizen and a resident!
Legal migration might seem like a neat fix at first glance, but it throws up complex questions for both the migrants and the locals where migration happens. In Part 1, we grasped the birth rate issue via South Korea. In this Part 2, we’ve understood the citizen-resident divide through the UAE! So now, we’re ready to tackle migration head-on, and for that, we’ll head to the land of the fair-skinned in the next part! Until then, في أمان الله (Stay safe)
Original Marathi Blog Article: लोकशाही आणि लोकसंख्येचा यक्षप्रश्न - भाग २
No comments:
Post a Comment